By: Sam Triantafillopoulos
With growth figures out last week, Australia’s FY2019 has been the worst since 2001, fuelling fears of a recession in 2020. The RBA has not signalled a cut on the horizon, with the two consecutive cuts earlier in the year now seeming early. This marks a shift in central bank orthodoxy from data-dependent to countercyclical, ultimately seeking to front-run markets rather than respond directly to the macro environment. Chairman Powell seemed to have adopted a similar stance, with both countries’ equity markets up more than 18% year to date. China continues to slow, with the PBOC signalling further loosening measures (or rather the removal of tightening measures). In turn, copper has seen a bear market much like that of 2016, in which an industrial recession gripped both China and the United States. Germany looks set for a recession in early 2020, with exports collapsing 20%. All 30 of the 30 largest economies have seen consecutive quarter on quarter falls in PMI figures, signalling weak production globally.
Pro Medicus dominated the news cycle last week, its founders offloading shares, with the stock falling 12% on Friday. PME remains up more than 200% year to date.
Upcoming Economic Calendar:
10/09 Tue: CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG); AUD NAB Business Confidence (AUG)
12/09 Thurs: EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (SEP 12); EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (SEP 12); USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG); USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food and Energy (YoY) (AUG)
13/09 Fri: USD Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (AUG); USD U. of Mich. Sentiment (SEP P)
Sources: Australian Financial Review, Sydney Morning Herald, Investopedia, Bloomberg, MarketWatch, DailyFX